The recent US Supreme Court ruling limiting the President’s ability to impose tariffs unilaterally has attracted significant attention in global lumber markets. However, its direct impact on the US softwood lumber market is likely to be limited – at least in the near term.
As of November 2025, two types of tariffs apply to US lumber imports (see Figure 1: US lumber import tariffs – Effective November 2025).
Anti-Dumping (AD) and Countervailing Duties (CVD) apply to Canadian lumber only. These measures are not new and are not “Trump tariffs.” They have been in place, in various forms, for decades and are administered by the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission. During 2025, these duties were raised from 14.5% to an average of 35.2% (company-specific rates vary). The Supreme Court ruling does not affect these duties, and they are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.
Section 232 tariffs – the 10% “national security” tariff on all lumber imports – apply to Canada, the EU and other suppliers alike. These are the measures most directly exposed to legal challenge following the Court’s ruling. There is a reasonable probability that these tariffs will be challenged within the next 12 months. Whether softwood lumber constitutes a national security threat is clearly debatable.
Figure 1
Even if the 10% Section 232 tariff were removed, the structural trade environment would remain largely unchanged. The 35% AD/CVD duties on Canadian lumber would continue to shape trade flows. European exporters would still retain a relative tariff advantage versus Canada, though all imports remain at a disadvantage to US domestic supply.
As we discuss in our recent report, “Softwood lumber – Tariffs, turbulence and new trade flows“, trade patterns are being driven less by short-term political decisions and more by structural fundamentals: supply constraints in Western Canada, US housing demand, production cost competitiveness, and shifting global trade flows.
Recent additional tariff announcements from the White House, including temporary measures under Section 122 of the Trade Act, further underline the unpredictability of US trade policy. These measures are time-limited and subject to congressional approval, and may ultimately prove less consequential than headline reactions suggest.
For sawmills and market participants, the conclusion remains unchanged: strategy should be guided by long-term fundamentals, not short-term political turbulence.
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Contacts:
O’Kelly Acumen (Sweden)
Glen O’Kelly | +46 73 56 98 039 | glen.okelly@okelly.se
Global Wood Trends (United States)
Håkan Ekström | hakan@globalwoodtrends.com