The recent US Supreme Court ruling limiting the President’s ability to impose tariffs unilaterally has attracted significant attention in global lumber markets. However, its direct impact on the US softwood lumber market is likely to be limited – at least in the near...
Europe’s lumber market is entering a period of tightening supply and gradually recovering demand. While production growth is expected to shift toward Northern and Eastern Europe, overall expansion will be limited by structural harvest constraints in Central Europe. Stronger domestic consumption, combined with potentially higher US demand due to tariffs and reduced Canadian output, will likely support higher prices for logs and lumber. Europe will remain a critical global supplier, but competition for available fiber will intensify through 2030.
The U.S. continues to structurally rely on softwood lumber imports: despite being 27% of global demand, domestic production only meets ~20%. To close the gap by 2030 would require building ~75 new sawmills—demanding over 12× the sawmill investment made in the past 15 years.
Global softwood lumber markets are entering a period of significant change. After years of weak demand and high volatility, the 2025–2030 outlook points to a gradual recovery—driven by economic improvement in Europe and China, supply constraints across North America, and new trade flows emerging from tariffs and policy shifts, according to the new report Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulence, and New Trade Flows.
New report by O'Kelly Acumen for the B.C. Confederation of Forest Industries Ahead of the hashtag#COFI2025 annual convention on April 2-4, 2025, we released a new report on the competitiveness and sustainability of the B.C. forest industry. The report includes results...
Demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to surge over the next decade, particularly in the EU and US, driven by mandates and incentives aimed at decarbonizing aviation. Our review of capacity expansion projects highlights the growing need for suitable...
Enviva filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on March 14th following several months of financial difficulties and a missed interest payment in January. The company has been burdened by high levels of debt, rising costs, and lower pellet prices. What are the implications for...
Investment costs for wood pellets capacity, both brownfield and greenfield, have increased by approximately 6% per annum over the last 16 years. This analysis, based on more than 50 projects in the US and Canada, reveals a significant rise compared to the general...
Tack till Virkesbörsen (www.virkesborsen.se) för möjligheten att tala på Virkesstudion 29:e februari om utsläppsrätter från skog och dess påverkan på skogsbruket och virkesmarknaden i Sverige. Du kan se min presentation här (börjar kl. 57m00s):...
Market headwinds in 2023, cautious optimism for 2024 Since the release of our report on Forest Carbon Markets in February 2023, the market has met headwinds. Carbon pricing mechanisms, such as emissions trading schemes (ETS) and carbon taxes, continue to expand...