By Håkan Ekström, Global Wood Trends and Glen O’Kelly, O’Kelly Acumen
The global softwood roundwood market is entering a period of structural change. After decades of relatively stable supply, the ability of forests to meet growing demand is becoming increasingly constrained – and the implications for log availability, prices, trade, and investment could be significant.
Our Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook is a four-part market report series covering North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and a Global Overview. Together, the reports provide a global view of where future softwood supply is likely to come from – and, perhaps more importantly, where supply growth will be constrained.
The central message is clear: global softwood supply will grow only modestly through 2035, while demand is likely to continue rising faster. This points toward tighter markets and increasing upward pressure on log prices. However, the story varies dramatically by region.
In North America, the US South stands out as the region with the greatest potential to mobilize additional timber. Yet labor constraints, investment needs, and regional market conditions will determine how quickly that potential can be realized. Canada is approaching a turning point after years of declining supply, while the Western US faces increasingly significant resource and environmental constraints.
Europe and Russia present a striking contrast. European forests are already heavily utilized, leaving limited room for additional harvests as sustainability requirements and climate-related forest damage increase. Russia, meanwhile, possesses enormous softwood resources – but much of this potential remains inaccessible because of infrastructure, investment, and geopolitical constraints.
In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains highly competitive, but the expansion of softwood area has largely stalled as investment shifts toward hardwoods and alternative land uses. At the same time, constrained timber production in countries such as New Zealand, Japan and China is likely to increase pressure on regional markets and trade flows.
The reports also examine the forces that could reshape the market beyond simply how much roundwood is available. Lumber demand, housing and construction, changing log qualities, international trade relationships, climate change, forest policy and carbon markets are all factors that will influence how much wood actually reaches the market – and at what cost. The result is a global softwood market where the location, cost and accessibility of future timber supply will matter more than ever.
Our four-part report series provides the data, regional analysis and forward-looking perspective needed to understand these changes – and to identify the opportunities and risks for forest owners, investors, traders and wood-consuming industries.
Global softwood supply is not running out. However, bringing more accessible and competitively priced logs to market is becoming increasingly difficult.
The four studies are authored by Glen O’Kelly, O’Kelly Acumen (Stockholm, Sweden), and Håkan Ekström, Global Wood Trends (Seattle, USA).
If you want more information or to order any of our four market reports, please visit our webshop.